Spatial risk analysis for Phytophthora ramorum infection in heathland fragments in Scotland
https://doi.org/10.5285/00601c2a-ac86-467d-8696-689cf20e35d3
Cite this dataset as:
Barwell, L.J.; Turvey, K.; Amankwaa, G.; Asaaga, F.; Cooke, D.E.L.; Mitchell, R.; Purse, B.V. (2025). Spatial risk analysis for Phytophthora ramorum infection in heathland fragments in Scotland. NERC EDS Environmental Information Data Centre. https://doi.org/10.5285/00601c2a-ac86-467d-8696-689cf20e35d3
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This dataset is available under the terms of the Open Government Licence 
This dataset maps the risks of Phytophthora ramorum infection for 47587 fragments of Heather heathland (UKCEH Landcover Map class H9) and 74869 fragments of Heather grassland (UKCEH Landcover Map class H10). Fragment risk scores integrate climate suitability for P. ramorum (using pathogen-specific temperature-dependent growth curves and a relative humidity threshold), proximity to Larch/infected Larch within 500m or 5000m, proximity to other (non-Larch) wider environment infections within 1500m, habitat suitability within the fragment for sporulating hosts (Vaccinium myrtillus, V. vitis-idaea, Acrostaphylos uva-versi) and the reservoir host Rhododendron ponticum, proximity to inspected premises with confirmed infections and the presence of water courses. The maximum possible risk score for heathland fragments across all risk factors was 11.5, but in practice the maximum assigned for any fragment was 10.5 for Heather (H9) and 11 for Heather grassland (H10). Fragments were also classified as low, medium or high risk (overall_risk_as_range).
Publication date: 2025-09-19
View numbers valid from 19 September 2025 Download numbers valid from 19 September 2025 (information prior to this was not collected)
Formats
TIFF, geopackage
Spatial information
Study area
Spatial representation types
Raster
Vector
Vector
Spatial reference system
OSGB 1936 / British National Grid
Provenance & quality
We employed an iterative and collaborative co-production process that brought together stakeholders with diverse expertise from across Scotland’s plant health sector, including forestry, conservation, horticulture, and government agencies to co-design the risk framework. Heathland fragments in Scotland were identified using the Land Cover Map 2023 (land parcels, GB). Risks were scored separately for the two classes of heathland defined in the LCM. Heathland 9 relates to LCM Class ‘Heather’ (>25% cover Heather) and heathland 10 is Heather grassland (≤25% cover heather). Key risk factors for P. ramorum infection and their scoring were agreed with 15 cross-sectoral stakeholders through a self-completion survey and two workshops. The previous risk analysis for P. ramorum risks to heathland fragments has been updated to include new P. ramorum detection data in Larch woodlands and inspected premises provided by Scottish Forestry and SASA. New climate suitability models for P. ramorum growth are used. The risk scoring has been adjusted to reduce the emphasis on proximity to inspected premises as a pathway of spread, reflecting stakeholder perspectives on improved biosecurity practices in trade. The scored fragment data were intersected with the boundaries of local authorities, terrestrial protected areas, and P. ramorum policy zones to summarise the distribution of risks across regions in Scotland.
The final report was peer reviewed by the Plant Health Centre. In addition, a knowledge integration and validation workshop (November 13, 2024) examined the adequacy of the outputs for horizon scanning and decision-making across sectors. Validation of the climate suitability models for P. ramorum has been attempted using independent UK and European detections. This spatial risk framework cannot yet be fully validated until future detections are available, because previous detections are used within the model and are not independent of the risk scores assigned. Previous risk frameworks were cross-validated against subsequent, independent P. ramorum detections, as proof of concept.
The final report was peer reviewed by the Plant Health Centre. In addition, a knowledge integration and validation workshop (November 13, 2024) examined the adequacy of the outputs for horizon scanning and decision-making across sectors. Validation of the climate suitability models for P. ramorum has been attempted using independent UK and European detections. This spatial risk framework cannot yet be fully validated until future detections are available, because previous detections are used within the model and are not independent of the risk scores assigned. Previous risk frameworks were cross-validated against subsequent, independent P. ramorum detections, as proof of concept.
Licensing and constraints
This dataset is available under the terms of the Open Government Licence
Cite this dataset as:
Barwell, L.J.; Turvey, K.; Amankwaa, G.; Asaaga, F.; Cooke, D.E.L.; Mitchell, R.; Purse, B.V. (2025). Spatial risk analysis for Phytophthora ramorum infection in heathland fragments in Scotland. NERC EDS Environmental Information Data Centre. https://doi.org/10.5285/00601c2a-ac86-467d-8696-689cf20e35d3
Related
Correspondence/contact details
Authors
https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1643-1046 Other contacts
Rights holder
UK Centre for Ecology & Hydrology
Custodian
NERC EDS Environmental Information Data Centre
info@eidc.ac.uk
Publisher
NERC EDS Environmental Information Data Centre
info@eidc.ac.uk
Additional metadata
Keywords
Funding
Natural Environment Research Council Award: NE/V019813/1
Scotland's Plant Health Centre Award: PHC2023/02
Department for Environment Food and Rural Affairs Award: TH12224FR10
Scotland's Plant Health Centre Award: PHC2023/02
Department for Environment Food and Rural Affairs Award: TH12224FR10